The cost of fireworks

[Jay_]

I know that we have some sponsors here on the board and I want to make it clear that I am not dogging on you. I totally understand that the costs on your side of the biz have gone up tremendously since 2020. I'm really just speaking to the entire market.

With that being said, as below:


I am certainly not connected to the whole world, so I can only speak on the information that I gathered from friends locally that either have a stand, a store, or are connected in the biz in one way or another just here in Oklahoma.

It seems that around these parts, firework sales were down considerably this year.

It feels like the consumer market..at least around here has had enough of the high prices and are speaking with their wallets.

Personally, my budget/disposable income remains the same, but I just refuse to pay these ridiculous prices.

Last year I spent 17% of what my average was from 2017-2022 and shot a very small show

This year I spent 2.7% of what my average was from 2017-2022 and basically just shot a bunch of leftover canister shells and 2 big 1/1's that were leftover from 2022.


I love to watch everyone's shows on here and really miss putting one together, but I just cant stomach spending 12k on fireworks and getting roughly 40% of what I got just a few years back.


I guess if I have a question, its this: Will the market ever come down? If so, how long....2 years, 5 years...ect?

I did see a small amount of progress on prices at a few joints, but the progress is very slow and still not really in the ballpark.

Looks like wholesale came down a bit on some things, but still a far cry from when I could get (for example) gorilla warfare from world class for like $15 each case price...or when a 2/1 of a quality 3" noab was less than $60


Are those days gone for good? What was your experience this year?

[PyroFL]

In short NO the prices will not go back to what we would call normal.

First it was shipping cost with containers going from $3,500 to over $20,000 because of the bottleneck on both coast because of Covid. Prices are back to normal or below with no price change.

Then it was diesel prices went over $5.00 per gallon, prices are back to normal $3.56 ish with only a 8-12% change price drop on some items.

Next there was shortage of drivers, cost of labor went up, warehouse prices for storage went up and so on.

I believe mostly companies in the supply chain are trying to make up for the loss of consumer purchases.

They’re now playing with a double edge sword, it used to be they made their money by volume and now they’re trying to find a balance.

Then the part that makes things even worse for years moving forward.

BRICS, with these countries forming fast and almost done ones fully operational and cuts the USD is when you will see a world of change.

When that happens it will take more “stuff” if it’s the USD or CBDC or whatever they come up with to trade to get items internationally as most will not want are “stuff”/Fiat currency ….

There is a lot lot lot more to this but in short like I said the answer is No it will not be going back to volume pricing.

Now it’s all about profits and us making up the difference in spending.

[Birdman]

At least prices and supply seemed to have stabilized. I received some help with being able to source my product locally. Not only does that save on shipping but 1.4 pro is not subject to the extra 12% tax here in PA. I know here we don't have the usual amount of fireworks going off every night. Most everyone I talked to said even over the 4th things weren't as crazy as in years past.

I won't let prices keep from doing a show. I have my budget and when it's gone it's gone. Just need to work within the budget to try and compose a decent show. That's meant far more smaller cakes and less 500g cakes. Also less cakes firing at any one time. The new pro product also helps to bridge the quantity gap with quality. Even with my rather low budget I haven't been priced out of the game yet.

[RalphieJ]

My Dad's July 4th show was a Toledo railroad smudge pot, a 15 minute fusee, and a single box 10 inch sparklers. And we were thrilled to death.........LOL.

[jknepp1954]

Just fyi - shipping just took a leap up 2k from earlier in the yr - just hope it stops there - so we shall see.....

[BMoore]

It's not just fireworks. Have you been inside a grocery store lately? It's going to be interesting. Economics is like a pendulum swinging one way or the other and it always swings too far before slowly stopping and going back the other direction. I would say we are hitting a point where consumer spending is down and price lowering is the easy solution. It has taken longer to reach this point than I would have predicted. But how exactly does that work? Manufacturers, distributors and retailers have a business to run and must make profits. Even if there is some wiggle room to lower prices, is that really what we want from the economy at large? If you think inflation is bad, it is nothing compared to deflation. The fast food industry is struggling with this right now. Consumers are no longer willing to pay $15 for a cheeseburger and fast food chain foot traffic is down considerably. However, lowering prices, even where it's possible would be a bad business strategy and would likely have negative results. Why? Because if there is a downward pricing trend, consumers will just expect more. Why buy today when it will be cheaper next week, next month, or next year? The more likely scenario is we'll start seeing more sale promotions, value combos, black-friday type deals, etc. All ways to entice spending without actually lowering base retail prices.

So, in short, are we going to see firework prices drop to pre-pandemic levels? No. Are we going to see power come back to the consumer? Probably. What that will look like and the timeline is anyone's best guess. Economics is an extremely fragile thing. Hang on and enjoy the ride.

[Salutecake]

I'm going with the glut theory. It seems everyone has some kind of an excuse of why their product is so high. Yes shipping, cost of fuel, and cost of everything is up, but I have a feeling in all those costs that are up, every section has marked up their profit margin to make up for the lose they encountered during covid, and now they are keeping those prices up for as long as the market will continue to pay. Groceries, recently I talked to a local beef farmer and asked him why ground meat is 4.99 a lb and a t-bone steak is 12 something a lb, he said he wished he was getting those prices, his wholesale price has gone up slightly but not enough to ask those prices. Oil and gas prices, no one has ever given a straight answer on those prices, last excuse I heard was I didn't understand (?) "The US produces more oil than anyone" and our prices are outrageous, but I don't understand that the Saudis lower production my prices go up even though the US produces more oil than anyone??? When I started to drive, less than 30 cents a gallon - gass embargo of the 70,s upt to aver a dollar a gallon, then we had refinery issues - I remember the Saudis telling the us if you don't have enough or old refineries we will build them for you for free. Coffe was the start of all this 50 years ago, a big freeze in Columbia is killing coffee production, expect prices to soar, ther are over 50 counties that export coffee around the world and one place is going to dictate proces to soar?

I guess I've been around to long and listened to all the bull over the years, some I can accept and some of it, well. But this is the worste I have ever seen, where just about everyone is tying to cash in.

excuse typing on cell phone.

[PyroFL]

SaluteCake,

There is no one answer to this it’s all part of the bigger picture.

I would highly recommend readying “The World is Flat” by Thomas Friedman which will explain the interdependency of global economics and how it works.

Brush up on economy matrix and how that was developed by Wassily Leontief and uses that to formulate an overview. This will give you a very good idea of what’s going on and why.

Then add at the moment we have a failing Bretton Wood system that will be replaced with something that is fighting BRICs on many levels for world domination.

Very interesting time to be alive.

[PyroFL]

[/QUOTESo, in short, are we going to see firework prices drop to pre-pandemic levels? No. Are we going to see power come back to the consumer? Probably. What that will look like and the timeline is anyone's best guess. Economics is an extremely fragile thing. Hang on and enjoy the ride.[/QUOTE]

I would respectfully disagree because of many factors.

International the USD is done, countries are no longer buying our debit, the US has no way to service its debit and in short the USD is on its death bed internationally.

When you do international money transfers also known as remittance payment is done by USD in and out of the Foreign currency where the banks make pips (%) of the transfer which are Bretton Wood banks that are failing.

This is why you see more and more countries trading without buying USD to transfer, then selling back in USD so the bretton wood banks can make there pips (profit).

This is a firework forum so I’ll keep it at that but know this problem isn’t going away and will get a lot worse as the USD becomes worthless on the world stage.

[vegassalute]

No one said love is inexpensive. I feel it just like everyone else but I have to be honest, when I'm tearing down after an incredible show, and the crowd is yelling their approval, the incremental increase of our cost of goods is the last thing on my mind. Now, if inflation surge is compounded by quality deterioration, well, them's fightin words and that would not be forgivable, I own businesses in a couple of industries and Ill tell you firsthand, inflation is grossly underreported, especially food commodities. We've all taken grotesque pay cuts, and that's enough to make anyone cranky. But, as someone posted earlier, the low FOBs and inexpensive & less invasive can fees from yesteryear....they're gone my friend. They're nothing more than fodder for "remember when" stories. God, I wish/hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it. We would all do well to remember these points come November. I know Im trying so I can at least feel good that I attempted to support the right side of history, and we can all maybe pull ourselves out of this very painful stretch. Hang in there.